當壞消息滿天飛 寫給被恐慌情緒搞得不知所措的人們
2020年03月18日12:24

  來源: 市川新田三丁目

  When All News Is Bad News

  BY CHARLIE BILELLO

  The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear index,” ended today at 82.69. Since its inception in 1990 it has never had a higher close.

  美股波動率指數VIX又名“恐慌指數”,上週五收在82.69,為該指數自1990年推出以來前所未見的水平。

  When was the previous record?

  上一個紀錄高點是啥時候的事?

  November 20, 2008.

  2008年11月20日。

  In the midst of the Global Financial Crisis, after the Lehman Bankruptcy, and 11 months into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Things were really bad and seemed like they would only get worse.

  在金融危機的風口浪尖上,在雷曼公司倒閉以及美國經濟陷入自1930年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟危機之中11個月後,當時局勢真的很危急並且看上去似乎只會變得更糟。

  And then, for no particular reason, volatility gradually started moving lower. It was hardly noticeable at the time because things were still really bad.

  然後在沒啥特殊原因的情況下,美國股市的波動率慢慢地開始消停了,當時幾乎沒人注意到這一點,因為局勢還很嚴峻。

  But a month later, the S&P was 16% higher. 6 months later, the S&P was 23% higher. A year later, the S&P was 49% higher. Five years later, the S&P was 164% higher and the VIX had moved all the way down to 13. It was by no means a straight line higher, but things gradually got better.

  但就在一個月後標準普爾500指數漲了16%,六個月後升幅達到23%,一年後漲幅累計達到49%,五年後標準普爾500指數漲了164%,在此期間美股波動率指數一路下跌至13。股指的上漲過程並非一路順風,但情況變得越來越好。

  I know what you’re thinking. That won’t happen this time around.

  我知道各位在想啥:“當年的那一幕這次看不到了”。

  In the midst of an extreme panic, it’s hard to believe that it will ever end.

  在極端恐慌的市場氛圍中,很難令人相信這一切終將過去。

  I could tell you that this virus isn’t going to come close to killing the number of people that some extremists are projecting, but that likely wouldn’t allay your fears.

  我會告訴你們這個新冠病毒造成的死亡人數不會像某些觀點極端人士預測的那麼多,但這話對於消除恐懼於事無補。

  I could tell you that this virus isn’t going to lead to another Great Depression unless we let it, but that probably wouldn’t provide much comfort today.

  我會告訴你們這個新冠病毒不會導致另一場大蕭條的發生除非我們聽之任之,但這話可能不會令當下的你們日子好過一點。

  I could tell you that hoarding toilet paper, paper towels, food and medical supplies is doing much more harm than good, but there will still be those who say that if they don’t hoard and everyone else does, they’ll be left with nothing.

  我會告訴你們囤積衛生紙、紙巾、食品和藥品只會弊大於利,但可定會有人說我不囤也會有別人這麼做,下手晚了毛都不剩一根。

  In midst of a bad situation, there are people who simply want to panic and assume the worst, which is why we find ourselves in a panic in the first place.

  在危急時刻,人們一心只顧著恐慌和擔心最壞的情況發生,這就是我們發現在剛遭遇變故的時候自己會置身恐慌的原因。

  The media has figured this out and is happy to deliver the worst possible news available at any given moment.

  媒體對此心知肚明,並巴不得趁機散佈一些末日即將到來一般的危言聳聽。

  They won’t put the COVID-19 deaths in any context and tell you how many people die of all sorts of things every single day (150,000 globally).

  媒體不會就事論事地談及新冠疫情造成的死亡人數,跟大家說清楚每天會有多少人由於形形色色的原因而離去,全球每天的死亡人數是150,000。

  They won’t tell you that this virus thankfully isn’t killing children, and in adults under the age of 50 the current estimated death rate is extremely low (and likely to go lower as we test more).

  媒體不會告訴你萬幸的是這個新冠病毒對兒童的殺傷力不大,而且據統計到目前為止50歲以下成年人的死亡率非常低,隨著核酸檢測人數的增加死亡率有可能還會進一步下降。

  They won’t tell you that during past pandemics (see swine flu/H1N1) the fatality rate came down as the denominator (# positive cases) grew and more people were tested (the sickest are always tested first, leading to a much higher death rate initially – this is a high likelihood with COVID-19 given the high % of cases that are mild/asymptomatic. If you’re not showing any symptoms, you’re not likely to go out and get tested, especially now that you are instructed to stay home).

  媒體不會告訴你,以往的流行性疾病(比如豬流感和H1N1禽流感)的致死率會隨著感染人數和受檢驗人數的增加而降低,病情最重的人總是第一批被送去檢驗,因此最初公佈的死亡率會非常高。考慮到本次新冠疫情中大多數人屬於輕症狀或無症狀,因此實際情況也很有可能與以前的流行性疾病一樣。如果你沒有暴露出任何症狀,不太可能出門接受檢驗,尤其是現在政府已經發佈指示要求民眾儘量不出門。

  They won’t tell you that the number of active cases in China is moving lower and that active cases in South Korea may be starting to level off.

  媒體不會告訴你中國現存的感染人數正在下降,韓國的感染病例可能正在接近拐點。

  中國的新冠疫情可通過以下網址查詢

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

  韓國的新冠疫情可通過以下網址查詢

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

  They won’t tell you that the extreme containment measures we are all taking is going to slow this thing much faster than any model could ever predict.

  媒體不會告訴你官方正在採取的各種極端措施遏製疫情惡化的速度將遠超任何數學模型預測的結果。

  They won’t tell you such things because giving you a silver lining doesn’t generate clicks or keep eyeballs on the screen. Instead, fear sells and in the social media age it’s never been easier to create panic and mass hysteria.

  媒體不會告訴你這些真相是因為給深陷困境中的你們一絲希望不會增加新聞的點擊流量或抓住各位的眼球,他們要做的是販賣焦慮,在社交媒體恨不得主導一切的當下製造恐慌和群體極端情緒易如反掌。

  When all news is bad news it can seem as if it will be that way forever. But it won’t. Betting against human grit and ingenuity in the long-run has always been a bad bet in the past and this time is no different.

  當壞消息滿天飛,整個世界看上去好像只能一條路走到黑了,但黑暗總會成為過去。以往的曆史一再證明,任何長期抹殺人類的勇氣和聰明才智的做法都被掃進了曆史的垃圾堆,這次也不會例外!

  That’s true in life and in investing.

  這就是人生和投資中顛撲不破的真理。

  It will get worse before it gets better but this, too, shall pass. We’re going to beat this thing and come out stronger than before. Better days are ahead.

  柳暗花明之前還會有狂風暴雨,但沒有什麼過不去的坎。我們會跨越一切苦難,變得比以往更強。希望在心,光明在前!

關注我們Facebook專頁
    相關新聞
      更多瀏覽