美元末日來臨?後美國時代悄然而至
2019年09月02日18:01

  來源:人民幣交易與研究

  荷蘭ECR Research的研究員Andy Langenkamp通過金融博客The Hill發文稱,由於結構性、週期性障礙以及政治等各方面的原因,美元的全球霸主地位正越來越受到人們的質疑,各國也在試圖減少對美元和美國整體的依賴。但Langenkamp認為,美元作為全球貨幣的地位不會很快被取代。他還指出,各國為減少對美元的依賴而採取的嚐試性措施表明,它們預計一個後美國時代正在形成。由於美國被視為一個越來越反複無常的對手和不可預測的盟友,這種趨勢必然會加強。

  圖片 | Pixabay

  當前的不確定性和擔憂在金融市場上顯露無疑。投資者紛紛湧向黃金、美國國債和美元等被認為安全的資產。他們仍然大規模地湧向美國,而目前的許多不安全因素直接來自白宮。與此同時,我們看到越來越多的評論圍繞著這樣一個問題:我們是否正在緩慢但肯定地從美元轉向其它貨幣?

  Current uncertainty and worries are clearly reflected in the financial markets. Investors are fleeing into assets that are deemed safe such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. They still flock to the U.S. on a massive scale whereas a lot of the current insecurity derives directly from the White House. At the same time, we are seeing more and more commentaries around the question whether a shift is taking place, slowly but surely, from the dollar toward other currencies.

  摩根大通最近寫道:“我們認為,由於結構性原因和週期性障礙,美元可能會失去其作為全球主導貨幣的地位(中期可能會出現貶值)。”

  JP Morgan recently wrote, “We believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s dominant currency (which could see it depreciate over the medium term) due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments.”

  本月,英國央行行長卡尼聲稱,美元霸主地位正使全球經濟面臨越來越大的壓力,認為需要結束其霸主地位。

  And this month, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney claimed that the dollar’s status as a hegemon is putting the global economy under increasing strain and needs to end.

  在目前這個當口,美元的主導地位受到質疑並不令人意外:

  That the dominance of the dollar is being questioned is not surprising at the present juncture:

  美國當前和未來的政策看起來模糊不清或者根本沒有。無論是盟友還是敵人,都感到失控,因為他們必須等待,看看美國總統的推特上正在醞釀著什麼將要爆發的風暴。

  Current and future U.S. policies look vague or non-existent. Allies as well as enemies feel out of control as they have to wait and see what storms are brewing in the U.S. president‘s Twitter feed, about to be unleashed.

  俄羅斯等國正採取越來越強硬的立場。

  Countries such as Russia are taking an increasingly assertive stance.

  美國的相對優勢正在減弱,越來越多的人懷疑,美國是否會繼續支持和支撐其在很大程度上建立並塑造的國際體系。

  The relative supremacy of the U.S. has been waning and there are mounting doubts whether the country will continue to support and shore up the international system that it has largely build up and shaped itself.

  從某種意義上說,美國的實力可能正在減弱,但它的觸角已經伸向了遍佈全世界的各個國家和項目。

  The power of the United States may be lessening in a relative sense but the country has its tentacles in projects and countries virtually all over the world.

  由於美國金融機構、當局和美元在SWIFT(國際支付系統)中的作用,非美國企業擔心自己會招致數十億美元的罰款。他們擔心,一旦有哪怕一丁點證據能將他們與一個受到華盛頓製裁的國家或公司聯繫起來,這種情況就會發生。因此,許多國家都在尋找減少對美元和美國整體依賴的方法。

  Owing to the role of U.S. financial institutions, authorities and the dollar in SWIFT (the international payment system) non-U.S. businesses are terrified that they will incur billions of dollars in fines. They worry that this will happen as soon as there is even a tiny shred of evidence that can connect them to a country or corporation hit by sanctions from Washington. Therefore, many states are looking for ways to become less reliant on the dollar and the U.S. in general.

  美國真正開始走向霸權是在二戰結束前,二戰後,當時同盟國建立了佈雷頓森林體系。隨後,美國成功地進一步積聚了金融、經濟、政治和軍事力量,使其能夠在世界上留下結構性和廣泛的印記。

  America really started to move toward hegemony just before the end and after World War II when the Allied nations set up Bretton Woods system. Subsequently, the U.S. managed to further amass the financial-economic, political, and military power that allows it to leave a structural and sweeping mark on the world.

  與此同時,美國人也被指責專橫。早在上世紀60年代,時任法國總統Charles de Gaulle就憤怒地表示,美元作為全球儲備貨幣,對美國人來說是一種過分的特權。不時有人試圖削弱美元的主導地位,但是大部分都不太成功。

  At the same time, Americans have been criticized for being overbearing. As early as the 1960s, the then French president de Gaulle irritably said it was an exorbitant privilege for the Americans that the dollar was the global reserve currency. Attempts have been made from time to time to weaken the dominance of the dollar; mostly without much success.

  然而,情況正在發生變化,而這似乎表明各國希望減少對美元的依賴。2011年,中國持有美國政府債券的比例為14%,而現在這一比例已降至7%。從更廣泛的角度來看,其它央行的美元儲備顯然已開始發揮不那麼突出的作用。

  Nevertheless, things are shifting in a way that seems to suggest that countries want to become less dependent on the dollar. Whereas China owned 14 percent of U.S. government paper in 2011 that percentage has dropped to seven by now. Viewed from a broader perspective, it is clear that the dollar reserves at other central banks have started to play a slightly less prominent role.

  大約在2000年左右,各國央行的外彙儲備中有70%是美元,而目前這一比例是60%。我們還看到一些國家採取政治行動,試圖擺脫美國金融體系和美元的控製。

  Some 70 percent of the currency reserves of central banks consisted of dollars around the year 2000 whereas this share is currently 60 percent. We are also seeing political initiatives by countries trying to keep away from the clutches of the U.S. financial system and the dollar.

  在各方試圖繞過美國製裁體製之際,歐洲希望繼續通過所謂的“貿易往來支持工具”(INSTEX)與伊朗進行貿易。而且有越來越多的舉措旨在確保各國可以用本國貨幣而不是美元進行貿易。比如在中俄能源貿易的背景下。

  Europe wants to continue to trade with Iran via the so-called INSTEX instrument as parties try to bypass the U.S. sanction regime. And there are more and more initiatives that are intended to ensure that countries can trade in their domestic currencies instead of using the dollar. For instance in the context of energy trading between China and Russia.

  然而,尤其是石油和其他能源的買賣表明,美國的霸權仍然是那麼的“頑固”。全球80%的石油交易是以美元支付的。還有其他一些發人深省的數據:

  1. 在所有的貨幣交易中,80%-90%的交易對手都使用美元。

  2. 美元占全球外彙儲備的62%,而歐元僅以20%的比例位居第二。

  3. 60%的國際未償債務是以美元計價的。

  However, specifically the buying and selling of oil and other energy sources shows how “sticky” the U.S. hegemony still is. Eighty percent of global oil trades is paid in dollars. And there are other sobering data:

  1. The dollar is used by counter parties in 80 to 90 percent of all currency transactions.

  2. The dollar comprises 62 percent of the global currency reserves whereas the euro is in second places with a meagre 20 percent.

  3. Sixty percent of international outstanding debt is priced in dollars.

  另一個具體的例子是,巴西和印度80%的進口商品是以美元支付的,而只有一小部分的進口商品來自美國。

關注我們Facebook專頁
    相關新聞
      更多瀏覽